The Brazilian Green Hydrogen Industry Association – ABIHV says that the green hydrogen sector of Brazil has a project pipeline of more than $23.1 billion, or R115bn, in expected final investment decisions by 2030.
But industry leaders warn that much depends on signing off-take contracts, securing favourable financing, environmental permits, and deploying enough transmission networks to get that multi-gigawatt capacity online.
Fernanda Delgado, the ABIHV chief executive, told BNamericas that members of the association constitute 10.4 GW of electrolysis capacity at different stages of development.
She stressed that execution is going to take place in phases as projects navigate regulatory and financial obstacles.
Developer Qair is among the early movers, with plans to launch the first phase of its Fraternité project, 20 MW, by 2028, and FRV plans to bring its H2 Cumbuco plant fully online by 2030.
Export-orientated ventures are now also confronting a changing global landscape, especially in Europe, where energy safety and military spending have influenced priorities for investment.
European decarbonization targets are still in place, however, and competition coming for public funds and unreliable demand might postpone long-term purchase agreements, Delgado said.
ABIHV calls for a spur in domestic demand to buffer against international market risks. Producers are also watching at home the second round of Germany’s double auction scheme – H2Global.
The double auction also comprises a €587 million, or $652 million, lot for South America and Oceania, after Brazilian firms were excluded from the first tender for renewable ammonia.
The green hydrogen sector of Brazil is currently a mix of growth models, with industrial gas producer White Martins already running an industrial-scale plant located in Pernambuco. The company recently broadened its supplies to glass manufacturer Cebrace in Sao Paulo.
At the same time, Neoenergia has installed a pilot unit for research-based mobility transport. Delgado says, “Large-scale projects, especially those intended for export, need to coordinate larger volumes of purchasing, financing, and infrastructure, which makes their implementation more complex.”
Another important variable is the grid connectivity. The first allocation season under the new National Policy for Access to the Transmission System – PNAST in Brazil has just been completed by the National Electric System Operator – ONS, but Delgado warns green hydrogen developers will come under increasing pressure to secure obtainable grid capacity from power-hungry data centers throughout limited-energy regions.